PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HYPTHESIS Essays - Statistical Inference

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HYPTHESIS Essays - Statistical Inference PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HYPTHESIS Business PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HYPTHESIS In this assignment, we will attempt to study the effects that difference in Income Ratio (henceforth known as I.R.) between the years 1980 and 1990 have on the Productivity Growth (P.G.) during the same period of time. The Income Ratio of one specific year can be found if we take the average income of the richest faction of a country (the richest 20% of the population) and divide it by that of the poorest faction (the poorest 20%). In this assignment, the Income Ratios that were used were those of 13 different countries. The I.R.'s on both 1980 and 1990 were taken for all these countries and, to find the difference between them, the I.R. for 1990 was divided by the I.R. for 1980, for each country. These new numbers illustrate the change of I.R. between the two years so that we can compare how the P.G. changes in relation to the changes in the I.R.. On this assignment, we use inductive reasoning to examine the data and find a theory (a hypothesis) that would combine the data given in a way that would make sense, based solely on our data. How do we know if the "theory" that we formulate makes sense? In this case we will plot the points (derived from the column "I.R. 1990/1980," going on the x-axis, and the column "Productivity Growth 79-90," on the y-axis). According to how the points are on the graph in relation to the Average Point (0.94,1.45) (point that is an average of all values and which divides the graph into four Quadrants), if 80% of these points are where they would be expected to be to conform to the hypothesis, then there is no reason to reject this hypothesis. If, on the other hand, the majority of the points does not conform to our hypothesis (are not where they were predicted to be), then it is rejected. Another method of reasoning frequently used by Mainstream economists is "deductive knowledge," as opposed to "inductive," described above. Their theory is formulated and only then it is applied to the data. Their theory on this subject suggests that productivity within a country grows when the population has incentives to work harder (or to work more). When the gap between rich and poor increases (an increase in I.R. form 1980-90, resulting in a larger ratio on the column I.R. 1990/1980), so does the population's eagerness to work, therefore increasing the Productivity Growth. Since when one variable goes up the other also goes up, there is a positive (or direct) correlation between the two. Mainstream economists use deductive reasoning to deduce that there exists a positive correlation between the two factors. In short, their hypothesis is that when the Income Ratio increases, the Productivity Growth also increases, since people are more motivated. For this to be true, we would expect a line going up and to the right on the graph, passing by Quadrants II and IV. Most points (80% or more) would have to be on these two Quadrants. This, however, is not the case (see graph), since only about 30.77% of the points plotted satisfy these conditions. Since the original hypothesis was rejected, we might want to see if there is a negative correlation between the two variables (that is, as one goes up, the other goes down). Our new hypothesis would then be "as the Income Ratio increases, the Productivity Growth decreases." Then, in the case of a high I.R., people in lower classes would rationally start to feel insecure and that their work is not being recognized by society, therefore losing motivation and producing less. In this case, since there's a negative correlation, one would expect the line on the graph to go downwards, from left to right, passing on Quadrants I and III. If this hypothesis were valid, 80%+ of the points would have to be on these Quadrants. This is also not the case, for only 69.32% of the points are on the appropriate Quadrants. Like the first, this second hypothesis also has to be rejected. After analyzing these two relationships and seeing that neither is valid, we conclude that there is no direct relationship between the two variables tested. That does not mean that one has no effect on the other (it probably does), only that there may be other factors and influences involved that have not been accounted for in this assignment and that one is not the only factor responsible for the changes in the other. DATA SHEET

History and Archaeology of Chinchorro Culture

History and Archaeology of Chinchorro Culture Chinchorro Culture (or Chinchorro Tradition or Complex) is what archaeologists call the archaeological remains of the sedentary fishing people of the arid coastal regions of northern Chile and southern Peru including the Atacama Desert. The Chinchorro are most famous for their detailed mummification practice that lasted for several thousand years, evolving and adapting over the period. The Chinchorro type site is a cemetery site in Arica, Chile, and it was discovered by Max Uhle in the early 20th century. Uhles excavations revealed a collection of mummies, among the earliest in the world. Read more about the Chinchorro Mummies The Chinchorro people subsisted using a combination of fishing, hunting and gatheringthe word Chinchorro means roughly fishing boat. They lived along the coast of the Atacama Desert of northern-most Chile from the Lluta valley to the Loa river and into southern Peru. The earliest sites (mostly middens) of the Chinchorro date as early as 7,000 BC at the site of Acha. The first evidence of mummification dates to approximately 5,000 BC, in the Quebrada de Camarones region, making the Chinchorro mummies the oldest in the world. Chinchorro Chronology 7020-5000 BC, Foundation5000-4800 BC, Initial4980-2700 BC, Classic2700-1900 BC, Transitional1880-1500 BC, Late1500-1100 BC Quiani Chinchorro Lifeways Chinchorro sites are primarily located on the coast, but there are a handful of inland and highland sites as well. All of them seem to follow a sedentary lifeway reliant on maritime resources. The predominant Chinchorro lifestyle appears to have been an early coastal sedentism, supported by fish, shellfish and sea mammals, and their sites all contain an extensive and sophisticated fishing tool assemblage. Coastal middens indicate a diet predominated by sea mammals, coastal birds, and fish. Stable isotope analysis of the hair and human bones from the mummies indicates that nearly 90 percent of Chinchorro diets came from maritime food sources, 5 percent from terrestrial animals and another 5 percent from terrestrial plants. Although only a handful of settlement sites have been identified to date, Chinchorro communities were likely small groups of huts housing single nuclear families, with a population size of approximately 30-50 individuals. Large shell middens were found by Junius Bird in the 1940s, adjacent to the huts at the site of Acha in Chile. The Quiana 9 site, dated to 4420 BC, contained the remains of several semicircular huts located on the slope of an Arica coastal hill. The huts there were built of posts with sea mammal skin roofs. Caleta Huelen 42, near the mouth of the Loa River in Chile, had several semisubterranean circular huts with superimposed floors, implying long-term ongoing settlement. Chinchorro and the Environment Marquet et al. (2012) completed an analysis of environmental changes of the Atacama coast during the 3,000-year span of the Chinchorro culture mummification process. Their conclusion: that the cultural and technological complexity evidenced in mummy construction and in fishing gear may have been brought about by environmental changes. They point out that the micro-climates within the Atacama desert fluctuated during the end of the Pleistocene, with several wet phases that resulted in higher ground tables, higher lake levels, and plant invasions, alternating with extreme aridity. The latest phase of the Central Andean Pluvial Event occurred between 13,800 and 10,000 years ago  when human settlement began in the Atacama. At 9,500 years ago, the Atacama had an abrupt onset of arid conditions, driving people out of the desert; another wet period between 7,800 and 6,700 brought them back. The effect of ongoing yo-yo climates was seen in population increases and decreases throughout the period. Marquet and colleagues argue that cultural complexitythat is to say, the sophisticated harpoons and other tackleemerged when the climate was reasonable, populations were high and plentiful fish and seafood were available. The cult of the dead exemplified by the elaborate mummification grew because the arid climate created natural mummies and subsequent wet periods exposed the mummies to the inhabitants at a time when dense populations spurred cultural innovations. Chinchorro and Arsenic The Atacama desert where many of the Chinchorro sites are located has elevated levels of copper, arsenic and other toxic metals. Trace amounts of the metals are present in the natural water resources  and have been identified in the hair and teeth of the mummies, and in the current coastal populations (Bryne et al). Percentages of arsenic concentrations within the mummies ranges from Archaeological Sites: Ilo (Peru), Chinchorro, El Morro 1, Quiani, Camarones, Pisagua Viejo, Bajo Mollo, Patillos, Cobija (all in Chile) Sources Allison MJ, Focacci G, Arriaza B, Standen VG, Rivera M, and Lowenstein JM. 1984. Chinchorro, momias de preparacià ³n complicada: Mà ©todos de momificacià ³n. Chungara: Revista de Antropologà ­a Chilena 13:155-173. Arriaza BT. 1994. Tipologà ­a de las momias Chinchorro y evolucià ³n de las prcticas de momificacià ³n. Chungara: Revista de Antropologà ­a Chilena 26(1):11-47. Arriaza BT. 1995. Chinchorro Bioarchaeology: Chronology and Mummy Seriation. Latin American Antiquity 6(1):35-55. Arriaza BT. 1995. Chinchorro Bioarchaeology: Chronology and Mummy Seriation. Latin American Antiquity 6(1):35-55. Byrne S, Amarasiriwardena D, Bandak B, Bartkus L, Kane J, Jones J, Yaà ±ez J, Arriaza B, and Cornejo L. 2010. Were Chinchorros exposed to arsenic? Arsenic determination in Chinchorro mummies hair by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Microchemical Journal 94(1):28-35. Marquet PA, Santoro CM, Latorre C, Standen VG, Abades SR, Rivadeneira MM, Arriaza B, and Hochberg ME. 2012. Emergence of social complexity among coastal hunter-gatherers in the Atacama desert of northern Chile. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition. Pringle H. 2001. The Mummy Congress: Science, Obsession, and the Everlasting Dead. Hyperion Books, Theia Press, New York. Standen VG. 2003. Bienes funerarios del cementerio Chinchorro Morro 1: descripcià ³n, anlisis e interpretacià ³n. Chungar (Arica) 35:175-207. Standen VG. 1997. Temprana Complejidad Funeraria de la Cultura Chinchorro (Norte de Chile). Latin American Antiquity 8(2):134-156. Standen VG, Allison MJ, and Arriaza B. 1984. Patologà ­as à ³seas de la poblacià ³n Morro-1, asociada al complejo Chinchorro: Norte de Chile. Chungara: Revista de Antropologà ­a Chilena 13:175-185. Standen VG, and Santoro CM. 2004. Patrà ³n funerario arcaico temprano del sitio Acha-3 y su relacià ³n con Chinchorro: Cazadores, pescadores y recolectores de la costa norte de Chile. Latin American Antiquity 15(1):89-109.